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happy atheist

Duggar Aviation Part 2

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Rajah061014

I have to say, I'm excited to see that we've made it to part 2 of this thread. I've been following it since I first started lurking here in May. It's absolutely fascinating.

To those awesome posters keeping us updated, I applaud you.

:clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap:

Y'all rock!

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BlackSheep

Caught up and so impressed with the FJers who have made this thread incredibly informative. :D

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halcionne

Here's a quick recap.

The Duggars have two planes: a fancy Cirrus and a regular Cessna, and almost two pilots: John David, who seems to be working toward or may have already earned* an instrument rating; and Josiah, who is still a student pilot. Flight information and plane registration is recorded here:

Cirrus: http://flightaware.com/live/flight/N68SY/history

Cessna: http://flightaware.com/live/flight/N734UE/history

I like to take screenshots because Flight Aware's history only displays the last four weeks or so. My understanding is that Flight Aware reports tracked flights, but flights aren't always tracked, so there may be undocumented flights. Flight tracking is a courtesy offered by air traffic control which provides some security in that somebody on the ground knows where the plane is if it runs into trouble.

The Cirrus was last seen flying Josh to Christian porn rehab in Rockford, Illinois and back in the middle of the night.

The Cessna is evidently still in Nashville, though there's always a chance that there was an undocumented flight back to Springdale.

There's lots of hard data in this thread, but also lots of speculating and goofing off. For my part, I try to be clear about which is which, but I don't know how successful I am at it. I suppose that's why I provide so many links and details. Speculating is terrific fun, and imo it's the most fun when it's grounded in truth and it turns out to be correct.

*UPDATE: JD has an instrument (IFR) rating (as opposed to VFR) as of June 18, verified here. Congratulations to him!

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sophrosyne

I wonder if they sold the Cessna? (if an undocumented flight didn't otherwise return it to Springdale)

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ShepherdontheRock

:nothing:

Super interested in where they're going next!

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BlackSheep
There's lots of hard data in this thread, but also lots of speculating and goofing off. For my part, I try to be clear about which is which, but I don't know how successful I am at it. I suppose that's why I provide so many links and details. Speculating is terrific fun, and imo it's the most fun when it's grounded in truth and it turns out to be correct.

Successful? Definitely.

I wish that I had some facts to contribute. Until then, I'll have to be satisfied with being a mere follower, soaking up the overflow of awesomeness. 8-)

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church_of_dog

And while we're waiting for their planes to go somewhere, I just thought I'd share this link in case anyone finds it interesting.

If you go to https://planefinder.net you can navigate to your location and it will show you what planes are in the sky above you, real-time.*

* well actually some of the flights (the orange ones) are shown about 5 minutes delayed from real-time. The red ones are real-time, supposedly.

These are the kinds of sites I love finding, along with realtime lightning strikes, realtime global wind patterns, realtime earthquake lists, etc.

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CharlieInCharge

Thanks CoD for the timesuck ;)

Add my congrats to the super sleuths up in here! I had been following the flight tracking for awhile out of idle curiosity (and surprise they even own planes) but I never expected a scoop of this magnitude. Fingers crossed they don't make their flights private.

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anon710

church_of_dog, I also enjoy earthquake maps, volcano stats, wind and (very practically so [especially this year]) lightning, fire and smoke maps.

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Maggie Mae
And while we're waiting for their planes to go somewhere, I just thought I'd share this link in case anyone finds it interesting.

If you go to https://planefinder.net you can navigate to your location and it will show you what planes are in the sky above you, real-time.*

* well actually some of the flights (the orange ones) are shown about 5 minutes delayed from real-time. The red ones are real-time, supposedly.

These are the kinds of sites I love finding, along with realtime lightning strikes, realtime global wind patterns, realtime earthquake lists, etc.

Every single time we have a noticeable quake, the Alaska Earthquake site server crashes. It's so annoying.

There is also a active volcano website that monitors our active volcanos. They have webcams and everything. Although the last major event was less fun and more "cover your electronics, don't drive, and wear a mask"

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church_of_dog
church_of_dog, I also enjoy earthquake maps, volcano stats, wind and (very practically so [especially this year]) lightning, fire and smoke maps.

I've been searching for a realtime (or at least daily/regular) source of smoke maps -- do you know of one?

Like many, my area was affected for several days by the smoke from this year's wildfires. I occasionally saw that NOAA had produced smoke maps, but it seemed they were produced only sometimes rather than as an ongoing resource. Definitely interested in a better map for that if anyone has one.

Every single time we have a noticeable quake, the Alaska Earthquake site server crashes. It's so annoying.

There is also a active volcano website that monitors our active volcanos. They have webcams and everything. Although the last major event was less fun and more "cover your electronics, don't drive, and wear a mask"

Yikes, Maggie! Although I know that is par for the course for volcanoes. But still, a mite unnerving!

In my region there has been an earthquake swarm going on for more than a year now. Most of the quakes are very small, only a handful large enough to be felt nearby (and the nearest towns are quite a ways away, so hardly anyone feels them) -- but the concept of a swarm was new to me and very interesting. I've learned that a swarm is indeed a thing, and might-but-not-necessarily be leading toward a bigger quake. We don't have major faults in this area like the coast does. We are east of the N-S line of volcanoes that runs down the Cascades and into the top of California -- but not too far east for that to be a potential explanation of the swarm -- a new/developing volcano! Of course the most likely explanation is connected to the geothermal aspect of our geology -- lots of hot water doing stuff deep under the surface. I've read that the earth's mantle is only half the usual thickness in the vicinity of this swarm (usual = 20 miles thick, near swarm it's 10 miles thick, roughly). As pressure waxes and wanes it can cause small quakes. But the volcano idea isn't completely out of the range of possibilities...

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quiverfullofgreed

I see that Radar Online is following the Duggar Aviation flights now. They have a new article saying that Josh hasn't been seen at meetings or church services and Reformers Unanimous.

Then they mention that the plane made a mystery trip to Paragould, Arkansas. Radar Online says there are no rehab centers in Paragould. They must not have done much checking because there are at least two faith based rehab centers in Paragould. There is Grace Mission Bible Training Center which sounds like a place the Duggars would choose. There is also AGAPE which is for women. There is also one called Mission Teens which sounds like it is tied in with the Grace Mission Bible Training Center.

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VTSleeper
There is also AGAPE which is for women.

I am sure that Josh would be VERY happy to attend that program.

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silverspoons

Just curious what happened to the Duggars horrible motion sickness. How many times since the original special with the barf bags did Michelle talk about the motion sickness on planes and amusement rides?

Did they find a miracle cure or are these small planes full of passengers that are getting ill. I can't imagine the smell.

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ShepherdontheRock
Just curious what happened to the Duggars horrible motion sickness. How many times since the original special with the barf bags did Michelle talk about the motion sickness on planes and amusement rides?

Did they find a miracle cure or are these small planes full of passengers that are getting ill. I can't imagine the smell.

JB probably spiked their water with dramamine. The kind that puts you to sleep.

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anon710

church of dog, I use Weather underground's "Wundermap"

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

Enter your zip, then to the right there are 'layers' you need to close the add (where it says, "close this add", lol) then scroll down and you will see the place where you can check the box for "fires" I normally just look at "active fires" and never check the "fire risk" (makes things seem cluttery to me.)

It also has a layer for lightning strikes, but I have yet to ever see a single lightning strike, even when the local news reports that we had 100 in 15 minutes.

But the smoke map is cool, and often the satellite picks up fires long before they are reported on inciweb.

The national weather service has some too, but I can't seem to find them. Theirs also uses plotting. Last week when the smoke here was the worst, I was seeing the PNW weather pages on facebook post these.

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church_of_dog
church of dog, I use Weather underground's "Wundermap"

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

Enter your zip, then to the right there are 'layers' you need to close the add (where it says, "close this add", lol) then scroll down and you will see the place where you can check the box for "fires" I normally just look at "active fires" and never check the "fire risk" (makes things seem cluttery to me.)

It also has a layer for lightning strikes, but I have yet to ever see a single lightning strike, even when the local news reports that we had 100 in 15 minutes.

But the smoke map is cool, and often the satellite picks up fires long before they are reported on inciweb.

The national weather service has some too, but I can't seem to find them. Theirs also uses plotting. Last week when the smoke here was the worst, I was seeing the PNW weather pages on facebook post these.

Thanks! I use wunderground too (I'm actually a contributing station) but I hadn't seen that map page -- nice!

I looked at active fires, which aren't anywhere near me -- the smoke polygons all seemed to be very close to the fires, which is probably accurate for now -- will have to look on days when it's smoky everywhere, to see if they show the extent of how far the smoke spreads.

Also, here's the lightning map I use: http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

Like your lightning page, this one also doesn't show all strikes, based on what I see outside during a storm. I think perhaps the cloud-to-cloud ones get missed and the site possibly only shows ground strikes. But it's still a cool site to see!

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anon710

Thanks! I use wunderground too (I'm actually a contributing station) but I hadn't seen that map page -- nice!

I looked at active fires, which aren't anywhere near me -- the smoke polygons all seemed to be very close to the fires, which is probably accurate for now -- will have to look on days when it's smoky everywhere, to see if they show the extent of how far the smoke spreads.

Also, here's the lightning map I use: http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

Like your lightning page, this one also doesn't show all strikes, based on what I see outside during a storm. I think perhaps the cloud-to-cloud ones get missed and the site possibly only shows ground strikes. But it's still a cool site to see!

Thanks for the lightning page! And I tossed around the idea of being a reporting station, there are so many microclimates in the town that I live in.

The smoke map looks REALLY tame today, as I would expect, we have been smoke free for a few days. Even though the closest fire was 20 miles or so away, we were getting pummeled from every other fire in the PNW. No matter which way the wind was blowing. For a month!

I was getting terrible migraines, and vomiting.

Last week my son had to leave soccer practice early because of the awful air quality.

I hope with these cooler temps, the firefighting efforts will be more fruitful. The smoke this year is the worst, sustained smoke since I've lived here.

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Maggie Mae

Thanks! I use wunderground too (I'm actually a contributing station) but I hadn't seen that map page -- nice!

I looked at active fires, which aren't anywhere near me -- the smoke polygons all seemed to be very close to the fires, which is probably accurate for now -- will have to look on days when it's smoky everywhere, to see if they show the extent of how far the smoke spreads.

Also, here's the lightning map I use: http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

Like your lightning page, this one also doesn't show all strikes, based on what I see outside during a storm. I think perhaps the cloud-to-cloud ones get missed and the site possibly only shows ground strikes. But it's still a cool site to see!

That's cool! I also use wunderground and didn't know it had that feature. I'm not sure how accurate it is though. I thought both the fires close to us were winding down - they started in June. But they still look pretty big on the map!

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anon710

I think they use the largest official boundaries of the fire/complex, basing the fire parameters on total acres that have been burned.

Because, like you noted, some of the fires are winding down and still look large.

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church_of_dog
I think they use the largest official boundaries of the fire/complex, basing the fire parameters on total acres that have been burned.

Because, like you noted, some of the fires are winding down and still look large.

Yes, they don't shrink the perimeters once the fire is contained or even "out" (usually not called completely "out" until it gets snowed on, for the big fires) -- but if you look at some of the detailed fire maps they will show you which perimeters are secure/contained and which areas are still hot.

/former Forest Service employee

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grandmadugger

Congrats JD for getting your instrument rating. Keep working towards that commercial license.

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church_of_dog

This morning the Cirrus has filed a flight plan to go from Springdale to Elk City, Oklahoma. Scheduled to depart 10:10am their time, which I think is in about half an hour from now.

Update: I might have been wrong about their time zone, or else they are late in departing (not that that's ever happened before :lol: ) but they haven't taken off yet. But they did just file a second flight plan from Elk City to Amarillo, Texas with an expected time on the ground in Elk City of only around half an hour...

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