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Musings of the Shepherd on the Rock

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So...this time last year I was REALLY sick ringing into the new year. Not a great start, but I guess the year didn't turn out half bad, for me.
And, 2015 didn't necessarily turn out how I expected it to, in so many ways. For my personal life, or in the world.

So...here's a few predictions I have for 2016, keeping in mind that I'm likely to be completely and utterly wrong:


1)Trump will go down in flames during the primaries, if by him finally managing to alienate his base, or by his supporters not actually showing up to the polls.

2)Ted Cruz will get the Republican nomination

3)Hillary Clinton will get the Democratic nomination (Sorry Bernie)

4)Barring any scandals, Hillary will win the general election. But maybe not by a particularly large margin

5)Republicans will not lose control of congress.


I correctly predicted last year that something would happen with the Duggars, didn't think it would be the molestation thing, which really upset me. Joshley Madison was less surprising, and actually quite funny.

1) If When Josh goes back to Anna, he will probably continue to (attempt to) cheat. Or at least look at porn.

2) Another secret will be exposed, this time centered on JB or JChelle (although I think Joshgate 1 did not paint them in a flattering light)

3)Someone else will end up in a conveniently timed courtship

4)Someone (Jessa most likely) will conveniently do something that indicates they are inching toward fundie lite.

5)Jessa will be no better at mothering than Jill


1)Bill Cosby will be acquitted of the sexual assault charge, but it will be a pyrrhic victory

2)One of the Kardashians/Jenners (other than caitlyn) will get into trouble with the law

3)Meghan Trainor will continue to put out stupid faux-feminist bullshit music. Or will hopefully fade into obscurity

4)I refuse to believe that flares are going to replace skinny jeans. No. skinny jeans 4ever.

5)Wearing all black will still be cute.

6)LUSH will release those new flavors of lip balm in the US.

Happy New Year, everyone!

  • Upvote 1


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  • Posts

    • formergothardite


      7 minutes ago, HerNameIsBuffy said:

      The other thing was they said a recording of Bobey's testimony was played in court.  It was completely incongruous as the entire day was about computer forensics.  And she's on the witness list, why play a tape even if it was relevant.  That makes no sense.

      Didn’t it go from she was testifying to a recording was played of her testimony to the prosecution read parts of her testimony from Monday? I get things can get lost when people paraphrase, but those are wildly different stories. And, in the context of what we know took place that day it just doesn’t make sense. 

      I’m not really understanding why people think that person told the truth. 

    • Kayleigh83


      21 minutes ago, formergothardite said:

      The issue is, is that she is saying that some very shocking things were said when literally no one else is reporting they were said.  There is zero chance that the Sun wouldn't have jumped all over Ms. Holt's advice to get a bigger house but JB was too cheap. They would have devoted an entire dramatic article to just that. When all the people report back very similar things and one person reports back something totally different, that one person is almost certainly lying. It is beyond reason to think that none of the other people would have mentioned these shocking statements read by the prosecution. 



      I googled “Bobye Holt Josh Duggar” and found multiple articles from days ago talking about her testimony at the pre-trial hearing Monday, where her testimony helped the judge decide to allow the facts of Josh’s past into the trial itself. I think there has been some confusion on the timing of that testimony, perhaps because it was mentioned again on Thursday or Friday (ie: the point at which these facts were in fact admitted in the trial, as it had been decided they could be earlier in the week). Not sure if this meant playing the video of her testifying, having her on the stand again, or just the facts of her testimony being read aloud.

      I don’t see a mention about her advising Jim Bob to buy a bigger house, so I don’t know if that’s untrue, or if it was left out of the reports. The only reason I could think of why a publication might not include that detail, would be that the topic at hand is Josh and his behaviour. Possibly including a detail like that could be a sticky area legally since it’s more like hearsay about Jim Bob and his negligence and bad parenting, than accepted facts about Josh and his crimes? Maybe some more legally informed folks could weigh in on that….

      It is always possible that part was an embellishment. But most of the facts of Bobye’s testimony seem to line up and the issue of when it happened seems to be just confusion so far as I can tell.

    • Antipatriarch



      [fluffernutter] Can someone with more knowledge on how this all works help me? So right now, it's looking good for him to get convicted. But isn't that just because right now it's the prosecution's turn? When the defense has their turn, won't they just have as much time to make their side look strong too?

      5 hours ago, Antimony said:

      You gotta consider cross. 

      The defense has had ample opportunity to cross-examine all prosecution witnesses, and will continue to do so. And, frankly, they're not doing a great job of it. Just because it's the prosecution's turn doesn't mean the defense isn't already building a case. 

      Similarly so for the defense. The prosecution will have a chance to cross-examine all defense witnesses. I can't even tell who the defense witnesses are. The prosecution has a huge witness list, including the Holts and Jill. The Defense is calling...four people.

      Yes. The defense case can go a long way during cross-examination of the prosecution's witnesses... attacking their credibility, getting them to admit to alternative explanations, introducing doubt, etc. I even saw one case where the defense didn't call any witnesses of their own; they rested after the prosecution did, and used closing arguments to remind the jury how they showed the prosecution didn't make their case.

      I also often see the defense use a lot fewer witnesses. I think one reason is, juries get tired; they want to finish and go home. (The 2-week civil trial where I served on the jury was roughly 75% plaintiff 25% defendants between the opening and closing statements.) But in this case, I think the defense has just been dealt a bad hand... probably not many witnesses to choose from that will do more good than harm when the prosecution cross-examines them.

      • Upvote 1
    • Sabine


      3 minutes ago, zimona said:

      She simply cannot afford to fall apart right now, and stepping out of the cult overnight would most likely result in some sort of emotional explosion and blow up.
      It's such a mess and there simply is no easy way out.






      That is what i think. Fwiw, in order to see my siblings i had to be 'nice' to my rapist. As he continued to live at home and my Mother never even acknowledge the abuse, she simply could not. Her whole life was centered around this man and her inability to see the damage that he did to her children from her first marriage was washed away in booze and denial. The day of her funeral was the most liberating day in my life. My brother and I left the house and simply told him to go to hell. I have been the easiest and happiest since. 

      But i stayed away from home for long periods of time - years to be honest - because i could have very easily taken a knife to that guy in a manner that would have made the inventor of a thousand cuts blush with embarrassment. But i always knew deep down, that doing that would hurt me more then him.

      And unless Anna understands that she need not keep sweet, that she can leave, that she will not be abandoned, that her god will still keep her in his favor, she will bottle it all up and pretend it did not happen. Just like my Mum. Who had her first beer of the day at 10 Am in the morning. I wonder what Anna does to prevent her from thinking. Self flagellation? I don't think that she has anyone right now there that actually loves her, and that would stage an intervention. I hope that someone will show up and tell her to pull her head out of her behind, and understand the damage she is doing to her kids and herself. Someone, anyone. But i don't know if that will happen, it never happened for my mum - and she lost three kids and grand children because of the 'headship' in our house. 

      • Love 2
    • onekidanddone


      1 minute ago, Idlewild said:

      I wondered if JB’s run for senate was a grifting scam but I honestly think he is so up his own arse he believes he has a shot. The TV show is over but he isn’t done with the limelight. If you look at the statement he and Michelle made when the show was cancelled, it’s clear he thinks he is an awesome influence.

      ‘Over the years, some of our most treasured moments have been those when we met children across the country who are alive today because of our testimony that children are a blessing—a special gift from God—and that the only real hope for individuals and families is a close relationship with Jesus Christ’

      And how many children have suffered at the hands of your son

      • Upvote 1

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    • HerNameIsBuffy


      Advice needed from anyone with experience planning a Catholic wedding
      She's been engaged less than a week and I've got questions.
      Booking a church or venue is done way in advance so we're on that now.   
      Why do churches ask what the date is when they say specifically on the website that you can't set a date until discussing it with the coordinator?  Why can't they ask for a range? Since when have Catholic churches been such pains in the ass about being a member of that parish to get married there?  She's coming in from out of state for the wedding, she doesn't have a parish here.  I'm not religious and my local parish church is ugly.  My childhood parish waived this and said they could marry there, but it's not an ideal location and aesthetically it's fine but she'd prefer older and more cathedralesque if they do the church wedding.   My grandpa's old church is beautiful and she's in love with it....but they're the only one who hasn't gotten back to us.  (St. Hedwig's for anyone familiar with Chicago's Bucktown) Bribes still work, right?  In the old days you could slip the church a "donation" and they'd be a lot more lenient about weddings, annulments, and funerals for non-practicing Catholics.  How are we supposed to figure out the going rate for graft 2021?   I have no problem lying to the administrative staff and claiming to be a practicing Catholic if it helps, does that make me a sociopath?  Although I don't want to lie to a priest directly.  Can you be a sociopath with religious guilt? I've been married twice, both times to Catholics.  First wedding in a Baptist church and second in congregational or community something.  I did that because I suck at planning this kind of thing and fundy-lites will marry anyone with a 20 minute meet and greet, apparently.  I wanted to elope both times and was over ruled both times so I resentfully half-assed it so this is the first time I'm trying to help plan a wedding properly.  
      The church she wants will waive the bride and groom being members if one of their parents are.  I love my daughter so much, but if I have to start actually attending church to make this work I will expect her to pay for the increase in my wine and edible budget.  Member for at least four months.  Driving from the burbs into the city once a week timing it so I get there just in time to toss them an envelope with money I'd rather keep and skedaddle is something I'd rather avoid.
      I know lots of people think what I'm trying to do is awful.  That non-practicing Catholics shouldn't get married in the church, that it's a sin to try and game the system, etc.  That church shopping for the aesthetic is  a sacrilege or such.  I understand how people can feel that way, it's valid.  But people like that would disapprove of me for a million other reasons anyway, so I'm okay with that.
      This is how I'm rationalizing it. 
      I raised her Catholic and while not practicing as an adult she does believe in God, Jesus, giving a shout out to Mary and all that.  They are going to raise their kids Catholic in the sense of sending them to CCD so they have the religious ed and then they can make their own choices as adults.   I spent thousands of dollars on CCD over the years and two out of three of my kids don't know what an apostle is.  They owe me.   Being Catholic is as much a cultural thing as a religious choice and that's the only one we have.   You can't opt out of being Catholic, as my sister once learned when she went fundy-lite, due to the indelible mark of baptism so they keep you on the roster.  If you can't leave the church without a formal declaration then I there should be something in it for us.  One wedding and burial per Catholic no matter how lapsed seems fair to me. When my uncle died in the late 1950s the church wouldn't allow him to be buried in a Catholic cemetery so they put him in a secular one.  Several years later my dad made a sizable "donation" and voila, look who got exhumed and is now buried next to Grandma and Grandpa.  Wish he was here now to handle this.  
      · 16 replies
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