Hurricanes Jose, Katia, and Maria

[Honey]

I live in the south of Puerto Rico. With Irma we didn't get that much damage in comparison to the Virgin Islands but there's still a LOT of people without electricity over here. 

Hurricane Jose better fuck off. Katia and Irma too. I just read there was a massive earthquake in Mexico city, wtf. Planet Earth has gone mad. 

 

 

[Carm_88]

@Honey Stay safe and I will continue to hope that Jose goes out to sea. 

[saintmom]

I have family in Florida.  All have evacuated except for my sister who has been ordered into work.  I cannot describe the sick feeling I have over this, and will sit with my eyes glued to the tv for news.  I'm not even the tiniest bit religious but my prayers go out to all affected by this.  

[GrumpyGran]

10 hours ago, fraurosena said:

I've been hearing that because of the earthquake, there are now also tsunami warnings. Damn, Mother Nature is exceptionally angry. 

This was in my twitterfeed this morning.

It's quite telling, isn't it, that all these former presidents have made this video appeal together, but that the current presidunce has no part in it.

This made me cry. I have disaster exhaustion. I agree with you @sawasdee, in my almost sixty years I can't remember so much continued destruction.

And, Kirk Cameron, shut it. Wasn't there something about humility in your blahblahblahblah? Take your own advice and don't assume to tell us what God's thinking, okay? Maybe it's you s/he is pissed at. For you I have:  

[Cartmann99]

17 minutes ago, GrumpyGran said:

This made me cry. I have disaster exhaustion. 

I understand. I bookmarked this tweet so I could watch this choir sing when I start feeling overwhelmed.

 

[fraurosena]

I found these NASA images to give you an idea of the scale of these monstrosities. 

 

[sawasdee]

48 minutes ago, Cartmann99 said:

I bookmarked this tweet so I could watch this choir sing when I start feeling overwhelmed.

That made me tear up. Thank you, @Cartmann99.

[onekidanddone]

1 hour ago, GrumpyGran said:

This made me cry. I have disaster exhaustion. I agree with you @sawasdee, in my almost sixty years I can't remember so much continued destruction.

I miss Obama so much it hurts. 

[sawasdee]

@onekidanddoneEveryone should miss sanity. And yes, it hurts.

[Cartmann99]

8 minutes ago, onekidanddone said:

I miss Obama so much it hurts. 

President Obama's Facebook post about Trump's decision on DACA had me in tears.

[onekidanddone]

14 minutes ago, Cartmann99 said:

President Obama's Facebook post about Trump's decision on DACA had me in tears.

I know he is probably exhausted and just wants quiet time, but PLEASE come back. For every MAGA  (Klan) rally, President Obama needs to hold one of his own.  Remind us we are not alone and the fight will continue. 

[GreyhoundFan]

An update: "At least 58 killed in massive earthquake off Mexico coast"

Spoiler

MEXICO CITY — Minutes before midnight, warning sirens blared across this earthquake-anxious capital.

This, in itself, was not unusual. Temblors are common here, and in recent years Mexico City has held annual disaster drills, revamped building codes and installed sophisticated sensors to be ready for an emergency. Many residents still have clear memories of the calamitous 1985 earthquake that killed at least 5,000 people here and left a quarter-million homeless.

But minutes after the sirens began wailing late Thursday, hanging houseplants started swaying and books tumbled from shelves. Plaster cracked. Streetlights shimmied like reeds in the wind. Lights went black. In pajamas and barefoot, with babies swaddled in blankets, residents rushed out of their apartments to wait in the darkened streets.

This was no drill.

This was an 8.2-magnitude earthquake, according to Mexican federal authorities, which would make it the most powerful one in Mexico in the past 100 years, and it was felt by some 50 million people. Mexico City, with many of its newer buildings built to withstand severe tremors, was spared significant damage, but the earthquake left pockets of destruction across southern states such as Oaxaca, Chiapas and Tabasco.

By Friday afternoon, Mexican authorities had put the death toll at 58 people, including 45 in Oaxaca and 10 in Chiapas. Mexican media published photos and video of collapsed buildings and rubble in the streets. The Anel Hotel in Oaxaca collapsed, but authorities said that people inside managed to escape and that there were not believed to be any casualties.

One of the worst-hit towns appeared to be Juchitan, with 31 people reported dead, according to the Mexican daily El Universal. There was severe damage at the city hall, a market, a car dealership and a hospital. Residents put out pleas on social media for help recovering people from the wreckage.

Three people died in Tabasco state, including an infant who perished when hospital electricity failed and a ventilator shut off, authorities said.

The earthquake was centered more than 600 miles from the capital in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Tapachula, a town in Chiapas famous as a way station for Central American migrants headed to the United States.

Mexican authorities closed schools Friday in Mexico City and 11 states in the central and southern part of the country so they could check for damage to infrastructure.

The U.S. Geological Survey counted at least 20 aftershocks greater than magnitude 4.0. The shaking set off waves that washed up on the coast; some coastal residents evacuated their homes and sought shelter elsewhere.

...

The main quake was centered 43 miles underground, more than twice as deep as the one in 1985, and experts said that dampened its impact.

After the shaking stopped, Mexico City and other large cities emerged mostly unscathed. President Enrique Peña Nieto said more than 1 million people lost power but electricity was soon restored for most of them.

Since the 1985 quake, which destroyed or damaged an estimated 5,000 buildings in Mexico City, residents here remain wary of any temblors. The devastation left a profound impact on city activists and politics, ushering in demands for more-rigorous building standards. Authorities conduct anniversary drills to teach residents how to react.

Whereas there was one earthquake sensor in Mexico in 1985, now there are about 100 solar-powered sensors throughout the country. When a quake is detected, these sensors send automatic alerts to a network of 8,000 alarms, intended to provide about a minute of warning before the shock waves reach Mexico City.

Since the early 1990s, there have been various alarm systems in use in Mexico, including radio announcements, and by 2014 Mexico City had installed its current loudspeaker system, said Juan Manuel Espinosa, director of the Center of Instrumentation and Seismic Registry, a nonprofit civil society group.

While preparations have improved, Espinosa said that becoming complacent is dangerous and that the government should continue to expand the alert network.

“I don’t want to give the impression that we are prepared and doing enough for a disaster. There are building standards that must be observed. There are many factors,” he said. “If this earthquake had been half the distance between Chiapas and Mexico City, the scenario that we would be living through now would be totally different.”

“One is never fully prepared for this,” he added. “And it’s been a long time since we’ve seen something of that magnitude in this city.”

 

[Cartmann99]

2 hours ago, GreyhoundFan said:

By Friday afternoon, Mexican authorities had put the death toll at 58 people, including 45 in Oaxaca and 10 in Chiapas.

[Cartmann99]

Katia has made landfall, but the potential for heavy rains is still there for Mexico.

As for Jose:

Just saw that there's a new storm off the coast of Africa that has the potential to become Lee. We'll just have to see how things go with that one.

[GrumpyGran]

18 hours ago, Cartmann99 said:

Katia has made landfall, but the potential for heavy rains is still there for Mexico.

As for Jose:

Just saw that there's a new storm off the coast of Africa that has the potential to become Lee. We'll just have to see how things go with that one.

Good grief! I just cancelled my hotel reservations we had for the next four days. Why do I feel like I may be making more for next weekend. What is going on off the coast of Africa? 

[Bethella]

3 hours ago, GrumpyGran said:

What is going on off the coast of Africa? 

There are storms that have a 60% chance of developing into a cyclone. If it forms it will be named Lee. http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/852297/URL-hurricane-irma-update-NOAA-track-path-florida-jose-lee-national-hurricane-center-map

[Cartmann99]

Cross your fingers:

Quote

 Hurricane Jose, which was downgraded to a Category 2 storm Monday morning, is expected to continue weakening over the next couple of days as it lingers in the Atlantic Ocean east of the Bahamas, the National Hurricane Center said.

In its 5 p.m. advisory, the NHC said the center of the storm was located about 360 miles north-northeast of Grand Turk Island with wind speeds of 100 mph. It was moving north at 12 mph.

"A turn toward the northeast is expected tonight, followed by a slower motion toward the southeast Tuesday and Tuesday night," the NHC said.

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2017/09/11/Hurricane-Jose-slowly-weakening-in-the-Atlantic/9571504625837/

[Cartmann99]

Latest projected paths for Jose, Lee, and Maria:

 

[Carm_88]

Jose, you see that funny shaped island? Stay away from it. 

[Destiny]

Sigh. Maria. Go away. PR does not need another hurricane this week, nor do any of the Caribbean islands really!

[GrumpyGran]

Isn't there an N one somewhere, too? I'm just trying not to think about it. Can't imagine being in the Caribbean now, waiting for another hit.

[Bethella]

11 hours ago, GrumpyGran said:

Isn't there an N one somewhere, too? I'm just trying not to think about it. Can't imagine being in the Caribbean now, waiting for another hit.

All I've heard of are the current three: Jose, Lee and Maria. As far as I know the next one hasn't formed yet but it will be Nate.

[onekidanddone]

Ever the negative person I'm scared the are going to have to start all over again with the A names this season.

[Carm_88]

6 minutes ago, onekidanddone said:

Ever the negative person I'm scared the are going to have to start all over again with the A names this season.

They got to the Greek alphabet, if they run out of names. 

Although, here's a fact; my facebook memories from yesterday was that on September 17th, 2011 Hurricane Maria hit Newfoundland and closed the university for half a day. So in 2011, Maria was not only formed but had already moved up the Eastern Seaboard and into the North Atlantic. 

[GreyhoundFan]

Sigh -- from the Capital Weather Gang: "Threat to East Coast from Hurricane Jose increases; Maria upgraded to hurricane"

Spoiler

(This story was originally published at 12:35 p.m)

6 p.m. Update: Tropical storm watches have been issued from Delaware up through Cape Cod. In their 5 p.m. update, the the National Hurricane Center noted that Jose is “expected to cause direct impacts from Delaware northward to New England.” 

Additionally, Maria has officially strengthened to hurricane status, prompting hurricane warnings to be posted on the islands of St. Kitts, Nevis and Montserrat, with tropical storm warnings in place on Antigua and Barbuda. Maria’s current forecast track will bring the storm dangerously close to the U.S. and British Virgin Islands as a major hurricane by midweek, prompting officials to issue a hurricane watch for the islands.

Original post

Hurricane Jose continues to lurk off the East Coast and should be watched closely by coastal areas from the Mid-Atlantic to New England, where tropical-storm conditions are possible during the coming week. New model information out Sunday afternoon suggests coastal areas from the Jersey Shore to eastern Massachusetts, in particular, may face a serious threat from prolonged coastal flooding, in addition to heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds starting as soon as Tuesday.

Meanwhile, less than two weeks after Irma devastated the region, the Caribbean islands are again under threat from a named storm, this time Hurricane Maria.

Hurricane Jose threatens prolonged tropical-storm conditions

Hurricane Jose strengthened slightly on Sunday and is currently located about 350 miles off the coast of North Carolina with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph. Jose’s intensity shouldn’t change much over the next 48 hours, as the storm slowly starts to move around the western edge of a large Bermuda High and toward the north.

...

Despite Jose’s predicted offshore track, tropical-storm-force winds will extend well beyond the center of circulation. According to the National Hurricane Center, there is about a 30 percent chance of tropical-storm-force winds along the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia coast as early as Monday afternoon or evening and more like a 40 to 50 percent chance of tropical-storm-force winds reaching the coast from New Jersey up through New York, Boston and Cape Cod as early as Monday evening or Tuesday morning.

The latest European model forecast on Sunday suggests the storm center could come very close to the Northeast coast on Wednesday and, while remaining offshore, will be slow to depart. If it is correct, it could an extended period of coastal flooding from the Jersey shore to eastern New England, including around Long Island and New York City.

...

In addition to the possibility of significant coastal flooding, the storm could bring tropical-storm force winds and gusts to hurricane force, along with very heavy rain.

Small shifts in the storm track are possible and will have important consequences on how hard coastal areas are hit.The NHC notes in its key messages that “any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the next several days.”

Hurricane Maria targeting Caribbean

Hurricane Maria, with peak winds of 75 mph, was located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles on Sunday night, moving quickly towards the northwest at 15 mph.

...

Fueled by warm ocean water and low wind shear, Maria officially reached hurricane strength on Sunday evening. Tropical storm and hurricane warnings extend from Barbados to Antigua as Maria should begin to impact the outer islands as early as tonight.

Maria will continue to intensify over the next few days, likely reaching major hurricane status (Category 3 or greater) on Wednesday. By that point, the storm will be on the doorstep of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. At Maria’s current forecast intensity and path through the Virgin Islands, it would mark the first time that two major hurricanes have passed so close to the island chain in the same season.

...

Potential U.S. impacts from Maria 

As The Washington Post’s Dan Stillman noted Saturday, things become a little strange in the forecast period beyond Wednesday. Both the European and American models have indicated that some interaction between Jose and Maria will occur, affecting the path of both storms. It should be noted that as of now, the NHC’s official forecast has Jose making a sharp turn toward the east and out to sea by Friday.

...

After passing through the Caribbean islands, Maria is expected to continue on a general track toward the northwest, which could put the storm in a threatening position for the U.S. East Coast by next weekend.

...

However, the large spread in forecast tracks seen above indicates low confidence beyond five days.

Jose and Maria: To dance or not to dance?

The dance routine between Jose and Maria shown in recent model runs is known as the Fujiwara effect, explained in greater detail a few weeks ago by our newest Capital Weather Gang contributor, Matthew Cappucci. It’s a rare phenomenon, especially in the Atlantic Ocean. It’s also an unlikely scenario, despite the recent model trends.

At issue is the placement and scope of two upper-level areas of high pressure by next weekend (as shown below). High pressure over the central Atlantic that trapped Jose last week will begin to weaken over the next few days, before restrengthening later. Meanwhile, another area of high pressure is expected to build over Ontario by next weekend. For Jose and Maria to interact and affect each other’s path, that Ontario high pressure would have to build over the top of Jose, to keep Jose from escaping out to sea. While that could happen, uncertainty remains high at this time.

...

In the meantime, Maria’s immediate threat to the Caribbean is very real and very dangerous, while Jose still bears watching for some impacts along the coast from Virginia to New England.

The tweets and graphics in the article are interesting.