EU Politics

[laPapessaGiovanna]

3 hours ago, prayawaythefundie said:

Wannabe sultan is now trying to make the Srebrenica massacre into a genocide committed by the Dutch! Has he lost his mind or just his history books?

Considering that in his history book the genocide of Armenians never happened, I don't trust him with correct historical perspectives. He seems so eager to remind other countries their worst moments, but we all kbow what happens when someone dare to affirm that Turkey was responsible for the Armenian genocide.

BTW I agree Srebrenica was a low moment in Dutch history but it was low for the UN and the rest of Europe too, that one is a responsibility we share . 

[prayawaythefundie]

7 hours ago, laPapessaGiovanna said:

BTW I agree Srebrenica was a low moment in Dutch history but it was low for the UN and the rest of Europe too, that one is a responsibility we share . 

I do agree and would like to add that still none of the mentioned parties actually committed the massacre. I'm not downplaying looking the other way here but history needs to be told correctly.

[sawasdee]

I've been avoiding this thread because I knew it would scare and depress me.

It did.

I was born into early fifties Europe, when we were all rebuilding after the horror of WWII, and saying 'Never again'.

Memories are short.

Please don't let a petty dictator like Erdogan, and the power hungry crazies of the right tear us apart again.

I am thinking of all of you in the Netherlands, and in France, and trying very hard to believe that sense from all sides will prevail. Take heart from those in the US who are mobilising for the first time to create a resistance to tRump, and do the same against your own crazies.

ETA And Erdogan wonders why Turkey's EU membership application has been delayed for decades.....

[fraurosena]

4 hours ago, sawasdee said:

I've been avoiding this thread because I knew it would scare and depress me.

It did.

I was born into early fifties Europe, when we were all rebuilding after the horror of WWII, and saying 'Never again'.

Memories are short.

Please don't let a petty dictator like Erdogan, and the power hungry crazies of the right tear us apart again.

I am thinking of all of you in the Netherlands, and in France, and trying very hard to believe that sense from all sides will prevail. Take heart from those in the US who are mobilising for the first time to create a resistance to tRump, and do the same against your own crazies.

ETA And Erdogan wonders why Turkey's EU membership application has been delayed for decades.....

I have some hopeful news for you then @sawasdee.

We had our elections today, and although the counting of votes is still ongoing, according to exitpolls the current PM's party is going to keep enough seats in parliament to remain the largest party. Geert Wilders' party (PPV)  therefore has no chance of governing, although he did win a couple of seats. It looks like he's going to tie in number of seats with two other parties, who oppose the PVV and all it stands for. It's my guess that the increase in voters this time around (according to the last count, nearly 47%) has helped. 

Of course, nothing is a done deal yet, as these are only prognoses, but in the past the exitpolls very closely predicted the actual results so they seem to be a pretty good indicator.

On the whole, I'm quite optimistic. I'll keep you all posted as soon as I know what the actual results are.

[candygirl200413]

I'm so so happy for all in the Netherlands. Hoping that it officially stays that the current PM wins. Hoping those in France learn as well and picks the right person.

[Gobbles]

One down, two to go! Good job dear neighbours!

 

[fraurosena]

So, I've been stewing a bit on what, and more to the point, how much, to tell you all about our elections. I could go into endless details, but I don't think that would interest everybody that much 

The main point is, the current largest party, the VVD (the PM's party) still has the majority of seats in parliament. However, it can't really be said that they won the elections, as they actually lost 8 seats and fell from 41 seats down to 33. That's quite a lot.

Wilders's party, the PVV, actually gained 5 extra seats in parliament and went up from 15 to 20 seats.

So in reality, the results of the election weren't as good as many foreign news outlets are making them out to be. The PVV wasn't obliterated, as I read in a couple of tweets yesterday.

To offset that though, there are 150 seats in total. The PVV got 13% of votes. That means that 87% of people voted other than them.

If one were to appoint a winner in the elections, it would be GL (GreenLeft), who gained a whopping 10 seats and went from 4 to 14 seats.

The biggest loser is the PvdA (Labour), who lost a massive number of 29 seats and toppled from 38 down to a mere 9 seats. 

The VVD, as largest party, will now be the first to attempt to form a coalition with at least three other parties to get a majority government. This will not be an easy process though, as the VVD is also a rightwing (though not extremist) party, and the three parties following in largest number (after the PVV - whom nobody wants to govern with) are more mainstream left (D66), or extremely to the left (GL and SP) of the political spectrum. It will be interesting to see (well, at least for me, that is) how things develop. 

And that's it. I'm stopping myself before I get into too much detail and bore you all about the demographics of voters and the parties they voted for (men vs women, educated vs less educated, urban vs rural, and so on). 

I will add one personal comment though:
It baffles me that the Netherlands are seen by the rest of the world as a kind of indicator how things will go with the other elections here in Europe. Although we are all part of the EU, France and Germany really are different countries with their own distinct politics. I don't see the necessary correlation.
Yes, the Netherlands showed that populist politics don't always have to win. But so did WA in Australia, by knocking down Pauline Hanson's One Nation. So I'm not sure why we are suddenly elevated to an almost kind of 'hero' status in global media. And I've no idea why or how our election results would impact or influence the way the French and German electorate will vote. 

 

[Red Jumper]

First: Thanks for the details and clarification. I am very grateful of your posts and the work you put into them.

Second:

9 minutes ago, fraurosena said:

It baffles me that the Netherlands are seen by the rest of the world as a kind of indicator how things will go with the other elections here in Europe.

I always saw the Netherlands as kind of role model on diversity, openness and living happily together. So if in this country, I look up to in this matter, the right-winged are getting stronger it worries me a lot.

When France moves right this is not an indicator. They have been nationalistic for a couple of hundred years. Their political opinions worry me because of the population size and economic leverage that goes with it (same with Germany).

You could compare it to other subjects: If the Danes would walk away from environmental friendly technology, this would worry me a lot. I do not see the Netherlands as an indicator country on that matter.

[fraurosena]

59 minutes ago, Red Jumper said:

I always saw the Netherlands as kind of role model on diversity, openness and living happily together. So if in this country, I look up to in this matter, the right-winged are getting stronger it worries me a lot.

Ah, yes, I understand the viewpoint of this explanation. We are a nation of traders after all, who historically have always had to be diverse and open in order to succeed. I believe it can even be considered to have become an integral part of our culture. (And I'm not afraid to say, I'm proud of that.)

This is not what baffles me though. I have read reactions in the news and on social media that (sometimes tentatively, sometimes more assuredly) are concluding that because the Netherlands' elections weren't won by a populist party, this means that the other countries in Europe won't either. We stopped the dominoes from falling... uhhh? 

I found an interesting article in the NYT on the subject of Europe's rightwing swing:  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/05/22/world/europe/europe-right-wing-austria-hungary.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

The fact that far-right populism is becoming stronger in Europe has the potential to be worrying.
But I do understand how this populism has become a thing, so to speak. No matter what your humanitarian stance is on the current influx of refugees in Europe, the fact of the matter is, these refugees come from countries and have backgrounds in cultures that radically differ from the cultures in Europe. ( Mind you, I'm not attaching any judgment here! ) These differences in viewpoints and outlooks are bound to lead to clashes of some sort or other. This in and of itself wouldn't necessarily be worrisome, as such differences can be bridged, given enough time. However, the political and economical climate in Europe at this point in time isn't the best, to put it mildly.

We're only just recovering from a very hard-hitting recession. Couple that with the general impression a lot of European citizens have that "Brussels" is dictating what our national governments can and cannot do and that they (the citizens) have no real democratic say in the matter, put together with the fact that a lot of people have the feeling that the EU was "shoved down their throats", and the whole situation becomes a feeding ground for populism. Especially when people think that laborers from 'poorer' countries are flooding in and taking our jobs because they are willing to work for less pay, and  then these refugees come in and get free housing and jobs and, and, and... 

I don't agree with that thinking. But I can understand the sentiments. Especially when you take into account that most people that are attracted to this way of thinking generally are not highly educated and therefore lack thourough critical thinking skills.  

 

[Red Jumper]

5 hours ago, fraurosena said:

 I have read reactions in the news and on social media that (sometimes tentatively, sometimes more assuredly) are concluding that because the Netherlands' elections weren't won by a populist party, this means that the other countries in Europe won't either.

I think they put a spin on the thought that "PVV did not win so much as expected" right down to "they lost". That's what other parties here would claim because no one loose in an election according to the party where the interviewer is. However, it is still untrue.

We here in Austria will moving farther right. I here what you claimed above from people who can articulate them well. the not so well educated says things that are utterly made-up bull shit or simple messages like "but they* do no deserve it" or "but i want more than they* get" Of course the Eu is always to blame, for.every.thing. However there are no strong exit shouters.
*"they" are not only new immigrants from the current war zones. "they" can be 3rd generation descendants of immigrants. I even heard "they" from immigrants about other immigrants.

[sawasdee]

@Red Jumper Sadly, I believe this is true of most of Europe.

[prayawaythefundie]

Like @fraurosena, I don't really get the we-dodged-the-bullet-in-the-Netherlands-so-we-automatically-will-in-France -as-well sentiment that some of the media seem to carry. While I did worry about the Dutch elections, I do worry a lot more about the French ones. Marine LePen does have chances of becoming France's next president and let's face it: If she wins, the EU will be history. While the rise in popularity of the German right-wing party AFD is unsettling too, their movement is nowhere near as strong at the FN in France. Even if they got 20 %  in the fall elections (which I really hope will not happen), it would probably not even be noticeable in our foreign policy. No other party will work with them. They are still isolated. So, yeah, France is the one I worry about the most at the moment.

[Pretzel]

On 18.3.2017 at 7:46 AM, prayawaythefundie said:

Like @fraurosena, I don't really get the we-dodged-the-bullet-in-the-Netherlands-so-we-automatically-will-in-France -as-well sentiment that some of the media seem to carry. While I did worry about the Dutch elections, I do worry a lot more about the French ones. Marine LePen does have chances of becoming France's next president and let's face it: If she wins, the EU will be history. While the rise in popularity of the German right-wing party AFD is unsettling too, their movement is nowhere near as strong at the FN in France. Even if they got 20 %  in the fall elections (which I really hope will not happen), it would probably not even be noticeable in our foreign policy. No other party will work with them. They are still isolated. So, yeah, France is the one I worry about the most at the moment.

I think and hope that the AFD won't make it to 20%. I think they're about to destruct themselves until then. They're a bunch of loud-mouthed Nazi freaks with little to no agenda other than immigrants suck and Germans rule (or make Germany great again or something). I am honestly way less worried about Germany than I am worried about France. There's a completely different kind of nationalism going on in the Front National than there is in Germany with the AFD, and it worries me to no end. And I am the farthest away from a political expert. 

[prayawaythefundie]

@ Pretzel: I just checked it: AfD got about 11 % in the last "Sonntagsfrage". That's still too much in my book but it's less than I had assumed.

[Red Jumper]

For non German speakers: "Sonntagsfrage" ="sunday question"= asking voters in a survey who they would vote for, if the election was on the next Sunday.

TL, DR: this survey result could be to low

I am not sure if German voters are different, but in Austria less people admit that they will/would vote for a right-winged party/candidate then actually vote for this party/candidate. Let's say survey claims 11%, real election could be as hugh as 25%....

It's getting better if the right-winged parties leave the margin zone. With currently 30%+ people are less inclinded to pretend to be central voting than a couple of years ago with 15%. It's still always lower for the rights in the survey than the real thing.

[fraurosena]

Looks like it's going to be a messy divorce...

EU's Brexit negotiating stance revealed by European Council President Donald Tusk

Quote

European Council President Donald Tusk has set out the EU's draft negotiating position, making clear that Britain must deal with its divorce from Europe before talks on a future trade deal.

The nine-page document states that there must be "sufficient progress" on withdrawal talks - potentially including the UK's 'divorce bill' running by some estimates as high as £50bn - before trade negotiations can start.

The move flies directly in the face of Theresa May's call for talks on withdrawal and future trade terms to take place at the same time.

 

[Childless]

1 hour ago, fraurosena said:

Looks like it's going to be a messy divorce...

EU's Brexit negotiating stance revealed by European Council President Donald Tusk

 

Good on Europe.  They should make this utterly dumb decision by Britain as hard on them as possible.

[Smash!]

I don't agree with that thinking. But I can understand the sentiments. Especially when you take into account that most people that are attracted to this way of thinking generally are not highly educated and therefore lack thourough critical thinking skills.  
 

It's not just the lack of critical thinking. People with bad jobs are most affected by all those changes going on. They lose their jobs first, their jobs can be taken over by immigrants or machines. They are the first ones affected by poverty. Their fears are real. Immigration and the EU is a real danger to them, to some extent. But the solution is wrong - populism makes everything worse.

[fraurosena]

These manifestations of their mighty military muscles is disquieting.

Russian naval activity in Europe 'exceeds Cold War levels' says Nato admiral

Quote

Russian naval activity in Europe now exceeds levels seen during the Cold War, a top US and Nato military officer has warned. 

Navy Admiral Michelle Howard voiced concern the distributed nature of the deployments could end up "splitting and distracting" the transatlantic alliance.

"We're seeing activity that we didn't even see when it was the Soviet Union. It's precedential activity," the head of Nato's Allied Joint Force Command in Naples and commander of US naval forces in Europe and Africa told Reuters. [...]

Last year, Russia deployed its only aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, to the Syrian coast to carry out bombing missions on rebel groups and Isis as Russian President Vladimir Putin propped up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Then last week, it sent its Admiral Grigorovich warship to the Syrian port of Tartus, which houses a Russian naval base.

Ms Howard said Russia had also increased patrols in the north Atlantic and Arctic region, made significant out-of-area submarine deployments, and increased submarine movement in the Black Sea.

She said there was a danger members of the Nato alliance would focus on the area of interest closest to them, while losing sight of Russian activities in other areas. [...]

She said the Russian naval manoeuvres had been matched by increased persistent cyber attacks by Moscow, and a steady number of unprofessional "fly bys" by Russian aircraft of US and other allied vessels at sea.

Nato has built up physical forces in Poland and the Baltic states to build up a deterrent and underscore the strength of the alliance, but US and European officials are also increasingly concerned about what they describe as Moscow's use of propaganda and cyber attacks to influence Western elections.

It's good to note that Russian propaganda and cyber attacks are now being regarded in a military sense. I hope that adequate measures will be taken  -  not only militairily, but politically  -  to counter the Russian chest-thumping, before it escalates into something far more frightening.

 

[fraurosena]

Quoted from the Executive Departments thread:

25 minutes ago, Gobsmacked said:

British Prime Minister Theresa May this morning announced a snap general election for June, taking us all by surprise. She knows that Brexit is nonsense, Britain is  badly broken and wants someone else to mop up the mess. We folk in Scotland are left, once again, with the dirty water lapping around our ankles. If we could emigrate en-masse to Canada I rather think Scotland would empty quite quickly.

We could then build a wall!!

Yeah, I heard this too. 

Is there any possibility, if a new government is elected that is against Brexit, that the Article 50 activation could be reverted/discontinued? In other words, could a Brexit still be avoided at this point, should the new British government choose to do so? 

[Gobsmacked]

26 minutes ago, fraurosena said:

Quoted from the Executive Departments thread:

Yeah, I heard this too. 

Is there any possibility, if a new government is elected that is against Brexit, that the Article 50 activation could be reverted/discontinued? In other words, could a Brexit still be avoided at this point, should the new British government choose to do so? 

I'm not sure what would happen if the Conservative government failed to be re-elected. Hopefully that will happen. The Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn will be a disaster. May be a joint labour/liberal government would be better for a short while. 

Scotland has the SNP who do think logically.

With Donald Trump as sitting tenant in the White House, now is not the time for the UK to split with Europe.

[fraurosena]

6 minutes ago, Gobsmacked said:

I'm not sure what would happen if the Conservative government failed to be re-elected. Hopefully that will happen. The Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn will be a disaster. May be a joint labour/liberal government would be better for a short while. 

Scotland has the SNP who do think logically.

With Donald Trump as sitting tenant in the White House, now is not the time for the UK to split with Europe.

To be honest, I cannot see any advantages of a Brexit for anyone other than Russia and possibly China. And we all know they don't have Europe's or Britain's best interests at heart.

Although I will be the first to point out the many, many flaws in the current iteration of the EU, there can only be losers if a Brexit occurs.

Let's hope that this new election leads to a reversal of article 50 then.

[fraurosena]

For anyone who's interested, here's May's statement:

And here is an article on the difference between Farron, Sturgeon and Cobyn's statements about the upcoming general election.

Quote

Theresa May has just called a very unexpected general election to go ahead in June, and anyone who’s seen an opinion poll lately will know there's little hope for anyone knocking the Tories from power.

Labour has become a joke, even among its own MPs, since the leadership coup last year. The Liberal Democrats have barely been able to crawl from the hole of insignificance they buried themselves before their time in the coalition government even came to an end in 2015.

But this is 2017, and no one – absolutely no one – can pretend to have the foresight to predict what will happen. Nevertheless, party leaders have given their initial responses – which will shape how they position themselves in this very truncated fight for leadership of not only the UK, but Brexit negotiations.

Nicola Sturgeon, SNP leader and Scottish first minister has called May’s announcement “one of the most extraordinary U-turns in recent political history,” a “huge miscalculation,” and one which “shows that Theresa May is once again putting the interests of her party ahead of those of the country”. [...]

Corbyn welcomes the election, and says Labour will offer:

An effective alternative to government that has failed to rebuild the economy, delivered falling living standards and damaging cuts to our schools and NHS.

Whether this is the case, many voters will take some convincing. Labour has been criticised for not offering an effective opposition, with Brexit negotiations and beyond.

Lib Dem leader Tim Farron has already aligned the party as the pro-remain choice, for those who’d hoped for, at the very least, a softer Brexit than the direction unfolding under May. He says:

If you want to avoid a disastrous hard Brexit. If you want to keep Britain in the single market. If you want a Britain that is open, tolerant and united, this is your chance.

 

[laPapessaGiovanna]

Maybe all the UK could vote for SNP since it seems the only sane party left.  I'm joking, but we all thought Trump was a joke so...

Basically May was tired of holding the boiling hot potato in her hands and after triggering article 50 she throws it back to Britons hoping that they will be the ones who get burned trying to cool it off before giving it back to her again. It could be a snart move or a political suicide. We will see. 

[fraurosena]

Oh no! This is really bad...

French police officer killed, Champs-Elysées in Paris closed, CNN affiliate says

Quote

One police officer has been killed in a shooting in Paris on Thursday and the attacker has been "taken down," according to CNN affiliate BFMTV.

BFMTV also reports another police officer was seriously injured and an unidentified man was hit by "cross-fire" in the the Champs-Elysées area. BFMTV has not specified if the unidentified man was the attacker or a bystander.

BFMTV reported earlier that two policemen were seriously injured.

The Champs-Elysées has been closed and authorities are telling people to avoid the area. Video showed the normally busy avenue, one of the most famous streets in the world, empty of residents and tourists but teeming with security officers at 9:30 p.m.

French police tweeted, "Police intervention underway in the area of the #ChampsElysees avoid the sector and follow the instructions of the police forces."

CNN's Paris bureau is witnessing a large police operation in the area.

The shooting comes three days before French general elections and Paris was already in a state of heightened alert.

Reuters had this to say:

Quote

One policeman was killed and another wounded in a shooting incident in central Paris on Thursday night, a police source said.

The person who fired on police on the Champs-Elysees, one of the world's most prestigious boulevards, has been killed, the source said.

Police authorities called on the public to avoid the area.

A Reuters reporter saw a helicopter flying low over central Paris, apparently part of a follow-up police operation.

News sources in my country, as well as others, are reporting that French police are viewing this as a terrorist attack. I sincerely hope this isn't the case. But if it is, I'm very afraid it will play right into Marine Le Pen's hands.

UPDATE:

AFP (Agence France-Presse) is now reporting that the shooter was a robber.

Whatever the reason, the policeofficer is dead. That is sad and distressing, and I truly feel for his loved ones. But I am so relieved that it turned out this was NOT a terrorist attack.