Turkey shoots down Russian Warplane

[sawasdee]

Well, if the  worldview of the simplistic dichotomy of right and left, ergo... right is bad so racist and left is right so Gutmensch, then anything beyond that is hard to understand!

I am not looking for left or right, bad or Gutmensch. I genuinely did not know where the information on the anti west groups was coming from ,and was asking for information. I have now had time to do some more research re Al Nusra and the Free Syrian Army, among other groups.  I am trying to educate myself on the complexities, not pick a fight over such an important issue. I am also finding the level of misinformation out there quite astounding; I'm working on the basis of at least three unrelated sources before I believe it, which is quite difficult in many cases!

[PregnantPornStar]

I am posting from My phone/tapa right now.

The BBC link is a couple years old.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-24403003

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/10/06/syrian_conflict_relationships_explained.html

http://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Syrian%20Opposition%20Guide_0.pdf

[PregnantPornStar]

Well, I looked at both and it didn't help much. The Huff Po link was about groups such as Boko Harum, and not about

Syria's complexity. The wikipedia link was more helpful, but there were several unsubstantiated statements - what I would designate as opinions, rather than facts - and the added Stanford link seems to be wholly about the rise of ISIS, and not the opposition. I'm sorry if I am being stupid, but I still have not found the evidence that you seem to have of the hostile to the west diversity of the anti Assad, anti ISIS groups. These links do not seem to me to provide any. If I am missing something (because I do actually speed read) would you please quote it to me? Thank you.

The rise of ISIS is a crucial factor in what is happening in Syria. When the split between al-Qaeda and ISIS happened, it meant many other jihadist groups declared an allegiance with one side or the other. That is putting it very simply. Anyway, you are not being stupid. The history is very complex and very messy. Different rebel groups (over 1000) are not often working together, they are always disbanding, etc. and it is hard to keep track of.

What I do know, as I posted earlier, we have been trying to work with "moderate rebels" and it hasn't worked out. Spending 500 million dollars to get 4-5 soldiers is surely not the answer. We can only dump so much money into the situation. 

 

[sawasdee]

The rise of ISIS is a crucial factor in what is happening in Syria. When the split between al-Qaeda and ISIS happened, it meant many other jihadist groups declared an allegiance with one side or the other. That is putting it very simply. Anyway, you are not being stupid. The history is very complex and very messy. Different rebel groups (over 1000) are not often working together, they are always disbanding, etc. and it is hard to keep track of.

What I do know, as I posted earlier, we have been trying to work with "moderate rebels" and it hasn't worked out. Spending 500 million dollars to get 4-5 soldiers is surely not the answer. We can only dump so much money into the situation. 

 

Did you find this statistic on the site nakedislam? Because I have seen it , and can give you the links that discredit it. They are the sort that just make the whole thing much harder to understand, by posting - not to put too fine a point on it - crap. If you have other sources, I would be very interested to follow them.

[sawasdee]

I am posting from My phone/tapa right now.

 

The BBC link is a couple years old.

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-24403003

 

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/10/06/syrian_conflict_relationships_explained.html

 

http://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Syrian%20Opposition%20Guide_0.pdf

 

 

Thank you for these links - the Slate .com was particularly useful. The BBC link, although dated,was a seriously good guide to the various groups involved. What scares the shit out of me is that there are legislators in both our countries making decisions on the level of commitment without even the knowledge that we have tried to equip ourselves with. It's a complex, terrifying situation, that will not be solved by soundbite answers, kneejerk reactions, or people posing as experts  on "talking head" shows who do nothing but inflame an already incendiary situation.

Unfortunately, those of us who are genuinely questioning, and trying to educate ourselves, are sometimes subjected to gratuitous insult, and patronising  dismissal - see above. Thanks, @LaTraviata

[PregnantPornStar]

Did you find this statistic on the site nakedislam? Because I have seen it , and can give you the links that discredit it. They are the sort that just make the whole thing much harder to understand, by posting - not to put too fine a point on it - crap. If you have other sources, I would be very interested to follow them.

Which statistic? I didn't find anything on nakedislam.

[sawasdee]

 

 

 

This statistic

You said:

What I do know, as I posted earlier, we have been trying to work with "moderate rebels" and it hasn't worked out. Spending 500 million dollars to get 4-5 soldiers is surely not the answer. We can only dump so much money into the situation. 

[SpoonfulOSugar]

Here's an op ed that gives some different background and perspective on this situation.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/11/analysis-turkey-downing-russian-jet-151124163107795.html

I didn't see anyone note that the pilot was killed after ejecting (it sounded like attacked by rebels) and that the navigator is (last I read) in the hands of Syrians friendly to Russia.  In addition, a helicopter searching for the two was attacked and another Russian was killed.

Loss of life often seems to be a factor that escalates the situation.

[sawasdee]

Have been websurfing some more, and there seems to be agreement that most of those trained have not yet gone into the field - but we are still talking in the hundreds, not thousands. I would like to know which company got the training contract?

[PregnantPornStar]

This statistic

You said:

What I do know, as I posted earlier, we have been trying to work with "moderate rebels" and it hasn't worked out. Spending 500 million dollars to get 4-5 soldiers is surely not the answer. We can only dump so much money into the situation. 

I posted a link to the amount spent that resulted in 4-5 soldiers trained earlier in this thread. This has been verified by General Austin (He is the commander of CENTCOM) so, if you have a link to dispel that, I would be interested.

[PregnantPornStar]

Here's an op ed that gives some different background and perspective on this situation.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/11/analysis-turkey-downing-russian-jet-151124163107795.html

I didn't see anyone note that the pilot was killed after ejecting (it sounded like attacked by rebels) and that the navigator is (last I read) in the hands of Syrians friendly to Russia.  In addition, a helicopter searching for the two was attacked and another Russian was killed.

Loss of life often seems to be a factor that escalates the situation.

I am fully aware that one pilot died and the other is seemingly back at a Russian Base. The helicopter was attack by Syrian Rebels.

I am also not arguing that Turkey doesn't have a right to defend their airspace. Of course they do, however, what are the repercussions? Turkey is part of NATO, but I "personally" would consider them a bit more of a "frenemy" rather than a true ally. Their relationship with the Kurds is horrible and the Kurds are our "friends". It is much more complicated than that, so again, I am simplifying.

[PregnantPornStar]

Have been websurfing some more, and there seems to be agreement that most of those trained have not yet gone into the field - but we are still talking in the hundreds, not thousands. I would like to know which company got the training contract?

I was stating there are more than 1000 rebel groups. Not that more than 1000 groups were trained.

That would be U.S. Central Command that "got the contract". Who do you think trains U.S. soldiers? That would be, solders. I am sure paramilitary was involved as well, which is the CIA and most of their operators are recruited from military SMUs.

[sawasdee]

A hell of a lot of private companies got training contracts in "post war" Iraq. And made out like bandits.

I was not referring to the number of groups, but rather the number of fighters - you referenced less than ten, I was citing a different figure.

[PregnantPornStar]

A hell of a lot of private companies got training contracts in "post war" Iraq. And made out like bandits.

I was not referring to the number of groups, but rather the number of fighters - you referenced less than ten, I was citing a different figure.

Which companies are you referring to? 

Also, are you referring to the 4-5 soldiers I referenced? That was confirmed. In front of congress. By General Austin. 

[sawasdee]

Who also referenced those in training.

[PregnantPornStar]

Who also referenced those in training.

What is your point? 4-5 were produced. 

[nausicaa]

He seems a bit biased and not a reliable source of info. The subject of Syria is a very complicated one, but getting info from people like this probably isn't a good idea. Alternative perspective doesn't always mean a reliable and honest point of view.

That guy, Paul Joseph Watson, also has videos entitled "Why Feminists are Fat and Ugly," "Not Having Sex with Black People is Racist," and "F**k the Pope."

I don't see what's entertaining about the little entitled shit on his poorly produced videos that spread hate and misinformation.

[SpoonfulOSugar]

You've noted several times that you are oversimplifying.  The problem in doing so is that it inherently loses the nuance, and this situation is ALL about nuance.  It really isn't a good technique for effective dialogue.  You can, of course, continue to oversimplify, but wouldn't it be more just to everyone to take the time to be precise?

I think, for example, that the characterization of "bad guys and very bad guys" is one that really deserved a little more clarity.

What is your point? 4-5 were produced. 

That's not precisely accurate.  The number of 4 to 5 is one of a number of citations and figures, and seems most likely to refer to the number that were actually fighting at the time of the testimony.

See, for example: 

Reuters news agency reported Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Christine Wormuth as saying that the Pentagon will provide "basic kinds of equipment" to leaders of the groups, not "higher end" arms like anti-tank rockets and MANPADS.

Wormuth defended the $500m Pentagon programme that trained only 60 fighters, falling far short of the original goal of 5,400, Reuters reported.

"I don't think at all this was a case of poor execution," Wormuth said. "It was inherently a very, very complex mission."

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/10/overhaul-syria-rebel-training-programme-151009133250518.html

(Emphasis added)

The U.S. Department of Defense has spent nearly $400 million, or $2 million per fighter, on its failed programme that sought to train and equip Syrian rebel forces to fight the Islamic State (ISIS) militants, according to the USA Today.

The paper said the Pentagon abandoned the programme last month after it had already spent $384 million for the project alone. The training programme yielded only dismal results, officials said.

Even with the huge amount of money spent, the U.S. was only able to train and field 200 fighters. The programme had aimed to graduate 3,000 trained and equipped New Syrian Forces fighters in 2015 to help protect their villages from ISIS attacks.

 

Of the 180 Syrians vetted, trained and equipped, 145 fighters remain in the programme, said the report. Of those 145 fighters, 95 are in Syria.

Reacting to the findings, Pentagon officials claimed that the actual cost of the training programme is far lower or around $30,000 per trainee and not $2 million.

"Our investment in the Syria train and equip programme should not be viewed purely in fiscal terms," Navy Cdr. Elissa Smith, a spokeswoman, said in her email to the news outfit.

"The vast majority of the funds paid for weapons, equipment and ammunition, some of which the U.S.-led coalition still has in storage,'' she said, adding that some of those trained fighters have been calling in air strikes, and ammunition designated for the trainees has been given instead to other forces fighting ISIS.

In the document outlining the programme's $501 billion budget, it said $204 million was supposedly spent for ammunition, $77 million on weapons, $62 million on mobility services, $47 million on other services, $46 million on construction, $40 million on strategic lift/shipping, $13 million on communications, and $6 million on facilities and maintenance.

http://www.christiantoday.com/article/pentagons.failed.syrian.rebel.training.plan.costs.us.taxpayers.2.million.per.fighter/70192.htm

Again, emphasis added.

Finally, I realize it's not all about the dollars, but of course a program such as this has enormous up front costs.  It's a bit misleading for media pundits and other critics to calculate the cost per trained soldier, as that would have had economies of scale had it been fully implemented.  

[Curious]

I'm moving this thread to No Holds Barred because while almost everyone in this thread is posting appropriately so far, not everyone is. 

This doesn't mean a license to be a jerk.  It's just a preemptive measure.

I don't want/need a bunch of opinions on the moving of the thread.  We are done waiting for things to go well off the rails and then taking action. 

Thanks for your understanding  

 

[PregnantPornStar]

You've noted several times that you are oversimplifying.  The problem in doing so is that it inherently loses the nuance, and this situation is ALL about nuance.  It really isn't a good technique for effective dialogue.  You can, of course, continue to oversimplify, but wouldn't it be more just to everyone to take the time to be precise?

I think, for example, that the characterization of "bad guys and very bad guys" is one that really deserved a little more clarity.

Noting I am simplifying is noting just that. I don't have time to explain the history between the Kurds and Turkey. I am assuming most of us know enough about the situation to draw from that, no? If not, I apologize and I am sure I can find some informative links for you. Really, if I note I am simplifying a huge situation, feel free to let me know you don't know much about the situation and ask for more information. I am not going to write an essay on Turkish/Kurdish/US relations, but I am sure I can google something for you. Otherwise, I am assuming we are mostly on the same page in terms of basic knowledge of what is going on in this region of the world since we are all taking part in the conversation. Those that have not understood aspects of the situation have asked. 

I wasn't the first to note the "bad guys and very bad guys", but I will admit I agreed. I also provided links. There are so many rebel groups, many of which are Islamist groups. Again, not writing an essay on over 1k rebel groups, but while ISIS is horrible, Al Nusra is not quite as bad, but pretty fucking bad. There are other groups that are bad guys too. So yeah, I will stand with my "characterization" of "bad guys and very bad guys". 

Also worth noting, many of the rebel groups are fighting Assad rather than ISIS.  I am not suggesting Assad is a good guy, but the point of the US training rebels was to fight ISIS not Assad. 

 

That's not precisely accurate.  The number of 4 to 5 is one of a number of citations and figures, and seems most likely to refer to the number that were actually fighting at the time of the testimony.

See, for example: 

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/10/overhaul-syria-rebel-training-programme-151009133250518.html

(Emphasis added)

 

http://www.christiantoday.com/article/pentagons.failed.syrian.rebel.training.plan.costs.us.taxpayers.2.million.per.fighter/70192.htm

Again, emphasis added.

Finally, I realize it's not all about the dollars, but of course a program such as this has enormous up front costs.  It's a bit misleading for media pundits and other critics to calculate the cost per trained soldier, as that would have had economies of scale had it been fully implemented.  

Much of the money went to buying weapons, etc. (Hence "Train and equip") The other trained fighters you are referring to here have been said to have turned over weapons to al-Qaeda pretty much upon crossing the border.  How much has been turned over? I don't know. 

Regardless, the program failed. It nowhere near turned out the number of fighters that were predicted.  

So again, I am not sure what your point is here? Do you feel that this was an acceptable outcome and one that should be continued?

A hell of a lot of private companies got training contracts in "post war" Iraq. And made out like bandits.

I was not referring to the number of groups, but rather the number of fighters - you referenced less than ten, I was citing a different figure.

Which companies are you referring to? 

Also, are you referring to the 4-5 soldiers I referenced? That was confirmed. In front of congress. By General Austin. 

Again, which companies are you referring to? Not trying to be snarky here, just wondering what you are referring to. 

[MarblesMom]

      I read the topic and immediately thought, "That is one talented turkey!"   It took a few seconds for me to realize we were not talking about our barnyard friend.  Carry on.

[jjmennonite]

I live in Turkey, and have been following this with great interest. Erdogan is a nutcase, but judging Turkey's status as a 'frenemy' based on his  decisions is like judging the U.S. based on George Bush or Donald Trump. 

I don't want to argue and I won't cite sources. I am simply sharing my observations. Generally, Turkish people are peace loving people, who have culture of loving their children and raising them gently. They feed cats and dogs on the streets. Dogs are spayed and neutered by the state. I saw so many cute cats that would not let me pet them, I went out one day armed with cut up sausage. The cats are not hungry, so I still could not pet them. 

It says a lot about a society, the way they treat the helpless: children, poor people, the elderly, animals. I see virtually no beggars, and I work in the city centre (Antalya). Crying children and babies are simply cuddled and cajoled into stopping. We have millions of Syrians here, being housed and fed, with education being set up, where all the other countries are speaking in thousands. 

Also, the crime rate is very low and I can walk home any time of the day or night without fear. 

This is is all anecdata, at best, but I have no fear of Turkey, and Erdogan will be unable to ruin it.